5516 dead meat eaters (AHS-2 2024 update)


A new article brings an update from the "Adventist Health Study-2", the biggest cohort study with vegans (USA sample only, because no mortality data was available from Canadian participants):

Definition: Vegans were defined as consuming animal products less than once per month, which can be argued to make sense from a nutrition perspective.

Numbers of deaths: 1008 vegans, 4002 lacto-ovo-vegetarians, 1225 pescatarians, 764 semi-vegetarians, and 5516 meat eaters died during the course of the study.

Results regarding mortality risk

Note: These data are only regarding mortality risk, i.e., the statistical risk (probability) of dying of these diseases in this particular population (Adventist participants of this study in the USA).

Note: I would say that Model 2 and Model 3 overadjust to some extent because they include body mass index (BMI; Model 2, which is included in Model 3), which is strongly affected by diet, a lower BMI being one of the main benefits of a high-fibre diet. And Model 3 adjusts for prevalent diseases, which are affected by diet, of course.

Note: I am guessing that one reason why the differences in men (vegan vs. omnivore) are clearer is that the differences in diet are more drastic, whereas women in general (also omnivores) eat less meat, more vegetables, etc.

Important note: While the word "risk", colloquially used, makes one think of a cause and effect relationship, it is important to keep in mind that observational studies such as this one do not show a cause and effect relationship. They show associations, which may reflect true cause and effect relationships. These associations might, however, give us the wrong impression, if there are other factors involved that were not considered here. For example, many vegans (particularly in the USA) might have become vegan because of a health problem they had (which would give them a disadvantage from the start), and/or they might be more stressed (because of discrimination against vegans or because of their concern for animals/the environment - which might give them a disadvantage), and/or they might be more relaxed (because in the Adventist community a vegan diet might be seen as virtuous and laudible and/or because they feel they are doing something good - which might give them an advantage), and/or they might strongly believe that their a vegan diet is healthier (which could give them a placebo effect-like advantage), and/or ... . Vegans in this population might also drink less coffee (?), and drinking moderate amounts of coffee (~1 or 2 cups/day) might lower the risk of dementia [Li et al. 2024, Zhu et al. 2024, Mentis et al. 2021Ran et al. 2021].  


From the article's ...

"Table 2. Associations between dietary patterns and all-cause mortality among 88,400 participants in the Adventist Health Study-2":

The figures in fat print are considered statistically significant. The numbers in brackets are a range of uncertainty of where this figure truly could be (95% confidence interval).

All vegans (men and women combined):

Relative risk of death compared to the meat eater ("non-vegetarian") group:

"

 Vegan

Number of deaths:

1008

Model 1:

0.88 (0.82, 0.95)

Model 2:

0.97 (0.90, 1.05)

Model 3:

0.99 (0.92,1.06)

"

Male vegans only:

Relative risk of death compared to the meat eater ("non-vegetarian") group:

"

 Vegan

Number of deaths: 408 

 

 Model 1:

 Model 2:

 Model 3:

 At age 65

0.60 (0.49, 0.74)

0.71 (0.57, 0.87)

0.72 (0.58, 0.88)

 At age 85

0.91 (0.82, 1.03)

1.06 (0.94, 1.19)

1.07 (0.95, 1.21)

"


Note (older vegan men): I don't know why the older group of vegan men had a higher risk. Maybe a higher percentage of these men had vitamin B12 deficiency for a longer period of time (but this is purely speculative). My guess is that it usually all boils down to the ten key nutrients for vegans, especially vitamin B12.



Female vegans only:

Relative risk of death compared to the meat eater ("non-vegetarian") group:

"

 Vegan

Number of deaths:

600

Model 1:

0.90 (0.82, 0.99)

Model 2:

0.97 (0.88, 1.07)

Model 3:

0.98 (0.89, 1.08)

"

"Model 1: Adjusted for sex (male or female), race (black or non-black), and each region of residence (continuous) (West South Central, Mountain, West North Central, New England Mid-Atlantic, East North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, Canada, or Pacific). The region variables are considered as continuous, because we also have accounted for the proportion of follow-up in other regions which they have lived and the total of all must add to 1.0.

Model 2: Adjusted for model 1 + marital status (yes or no), education (high school or below, some college, or bachelor’s degree or above), body mass index (>14 to <18.5, ≥18.5 to <25.0, ≥25 to <30, or ≥30 kg/m2), exercise (mins/week); smoking categories varied due to very low number of subjects currently smoking or recently quit in certain subgroup analyses: never, stopped smoking over 30 years ago, then i) 21-30, 11-20, 6-10, <1 to 5 years or current smokers for the combined participants in the vegetarian/non-vegetarian analysis; or ii) 21-30, 11-20, <1 to 10 years or current smokers for sex-specific analyses of vegetarian/non-vegetarian analyses; or iii) <1 to 30 years or current smokers, for dietary pattern-specific analyses; alcohol: wine, beer, and liquor (g/d), and female variables (centralized) (menopausal status, age at menopause, oral contraceptive use, and hormone replacement therapy).

Model 3: Adjusted for model 2 + prevalent diseases: available cardiovascular diagnoses (myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass surgery or coronary stenting, carotid artery endarterectomy; yes or no), cancer (yes or no), respiratory disease (bronchitis, emphysema; yes or no), and stroke (yes or no)."



What about death from specific causes?

Their Figure 2 (modified with blue colour):




The authors note that a higher risk for stroke, dementia, and Parkinson's disease might be related to vitamin B12 deficiency and/or low intakes and blood levels of EPA and/or DHA.


P.S.: If you are going to have a look at the original article yourself, note that there are some comparisons in which they compared "vegetarians" with "non-vegetarians" - the "vegetarians" in this case include pescatarians ("pesco-vegetarians")!

 

Reference:

Grace P Abris, David J Shavlik, Roy O Mathew, Fayth M Butler, Jisoo Oh, Rawiwan Sirirat, Lars E Sveen, Gary E Fraser: Cause-specific and all-cause mortalities in vegetarian compared to non-vegetarian participants from the Adventist Health Study-2 cohort. Am J Clin Nutr. 2024 Aug 2:S0002-9165(24)00652-X. doi: 10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.07.028. Online ahead of print. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39098708/